Market Watch Q1
What’s happened in this term?
Sales Volumes Nearly Double Last Year to Reach New Monthly Record
So we can see what's going on. January did about 7,000 sales, almost 11,000 in February, and 15,600 in March.
The first quarter of 2019 we did over 16,000 sales. Last year COVID happened mid March, right? We did almost 20,000 sales. But this year we doubled that number, we had 33,550!
Crazy what's happening right now. Annual sales growth was above 90% in March across all housing types, led by a 103% annual increase in detached sales.
For semis, rows, and towns, sales were up by more in Toronto than in the 905 over the past year (97% vs. 88%), with annual sales growth strongest in Toronto Central at 115%.
Within the condo segment, a nearly doubling in sales volume in Toronto Central brought median prices within 2.5% of last year’s high, with prices set for further appreciation in the core in the coming months as inventory fell below one month of supply.
Sales growth remains the strongest in the 905 region for detached home at above 100% year-over-year
With an annual price growth 10 percentage points higher in the 905 than in the City of Toronto (28.7% vs. 18.6%).
So how are prices doing? 967k in January, just over 1M in February and then almost 1.1 million in March. That's where we ended up. So the end of March the average sale price was almost $1.1 million.
If we go look at the first quarter, the total sales that took place in the first quarter of last year you can see it was right around 20,00 currently we're up to over 33,000 increase of 69%.
Now, if we look at what was the average price over the quarter, not at the end of March but over the quarter, it was 884k. Up 17.3%, big numbers.
What about prices in Q2?
So if we take the average price of the first quarter of last year compared to the first quarter of this year, you can see detached up 27%, big number. 21% semis, 9.3% for townhouse and rows and minus 1.8% for condos.
And I know what you're thinking. "Are you kidding me? "Shouldn't condos be up?" No, because condos took a hit last year.
After COVID, condos really did take a hit, a lot of people wanted to move out of condominiums, they wanted to get out of the urban center, right? Because of COVID. But what's happened is this market has recovered very nicely so far this year.
So the condo market's moving along just fine right now.
Change in Detached sales for the past 6 months
Sales across the GTA in March were at their highest level since September, the numbers being 15,561 vs. 11,033.
Comparing how sales have evolved over the last six months reveals that growth for detached homes was strongest
Within the $1.5 to $1.749 million range (+154%),
Followed by the $1.75-1.99 million range (+127%)
The $2.0 million+ range (+120%)
And finally the $1-1.249 million range (+103%).
For condo apartments, sales activity over the last six months has increased the most
Within the $800-899K range (+171%)
The $700-799K range (+151%)
And finally the $900-999K range (+141%).
Inventory levels were synchronized across housing types at lows of 0.6-0.7 months of supply, with condo inventory staging a remarkable drop from 3.4 months of supply recorded five months earlier in October 2020.
Compared to a year ago in March 2020, active listings for detached houses were down 18% while active listings for condo apartments were up 24%.
What is a Supply Indicator?
Months of Inventory: Four to six is balanced market, below four is a seller’s market and above six it’s a buyer's market. What we have here is out of control! In January we’ve got 1.1 months and February and March are both below one!!
In this quarter there were strong seller’s market conditions visible through the average time on market falling to a low of only 10 days and the average sale price-to-list price ratio rising to roughly 108% as most homes sold in multiple offer situations.
Of note, the sale-to-list price ratio was still not quite as high as the previous market peak in March 2017 at over 111%.
What’s a Price Indicator?
Look at this prices in 2016 were about 668k. Then last year up to 884k and right now it’s well over a million dollars. So all I can say is let's face it, the market's out of control.
So What’s to come next?
So what I think's going to happen over the next three to six months is your market is going to start to slow down just a little bit.
It's still going to be a seller’s market. It's still going to be a very good market. Don't get me wrong. Prices are still going to continue to rise but hopefully not at the pace they're rising right now because I will say this, what is going on right now is not sustainable long-term.
It can't continue at this pace without something happening that's going to be extremely negative to the industry, which is a bubble bursting.
So that's what I'm hoping it's going to happen and that's what I'm predicting is going to happen because what's happening right now won't be good for as long-term.
If you want a specific update on your neighborhood’s market don’t hesitate to reach out, let me buy you a coffee!