Market Watch Q3

How’s the Market Looking in Q3 of 2021

When sales go down, does it means prices go down too?

When Sales decrease, prices DO NOT always go down too.

Sales increased in September across all housing types compared to the previous months.

However, on an annual basis, sales for detached houses were down 29% and sales for semis/rows/towns were down 21%, while condo apartment activity was up 13%.

This means that annually people are buying less detached homes this year compare to last year regardless if they’re buying more compared to last month.

Sales were down year-over-year in September everywhere in the GTA for detached and semi/row/town properties following the record volumes recorded a year ago.

For condo apartments, which didn’t experience the same degree of sales growth as low-rise homes last year, activity was up by double-digits in most areas of the GTA, led by a 23% increase in Central Toronto.

For all Property Types:

In the month of January there were 6, 900 sales, March was the highest month in sales with up to 15 600 and then in August we had the lowest amount of sales with the exception of January at 8 500 sales Finally in September, we have just over 9 000 sales.  

When we see that difference between March and September in number of sales, we naturally begin to thing that prices must be weakening since there were less number of sales. However, this is NOT true.

What determines your price is Months of Inventory, we have been operating at 1 months of Inventory for this current year. This past 3 quarters we have had a strong seller's market still getting multiple offers on regular basis!

Sales growth remains the strongest in the 905 region for detached home at above 100% year-over-year

Let's take a look at what has been happening this year, January, February, March & April, they have had crazy amount of sales. Then in the next couple of month, sales have started to level off a little bit.

The market is still very good don't get me wrong prices are still rising but all of a sudden the market started to level off a little more compared to last fall so that's why you see such a big difference compared to previous years.

So far this has been a relatively good year, these past 3 months have been fairly slow which explains why our numbers have been fairly low but this is just after the 3rd quarter of the year, we still have 3 months to go!

Change in Detached sales

The price differential between the two housing types at $818K in September represented a record high, growing by 81% (+$367K) compared to two years earlier.

The fastest growing price bracket for detached houses

• Escalated from the $1.5-1.749 million range

• Into the $1.75-1.99 million range in September

• Posting annual sales growth of 52%.

On an annual basis, detached price growth of nearly 29% in September was more than double that of condo apartments at under 12%.

Condo Prices Rise Above $700K as Detached Prices Surpass $1.5 Million

For condo apartments the growth leader for sales remained consistent with the previous month, with the $800- 899K bracket doubling in volume compared to a year ago.

Recent studies have shown that investors are currently representing close to one quarter of home purchases in the GTA. While investors can be productive for the market by increasing rental supply, they also contribute to the lows in resale inventory being experienced.

Investors aren’t the true problem, however, but rather the symptom. To be clear, the GTA has been underbuilding housing for many years, which is the underlying issue.